 First of all this is a serious article. If you don't have several minutes to spare so you can shift your brain into the second gear, don't bother. Just skip to the next page and enjoy the Mint Rubbing Journal as usual. No problem.
"Why are you doing this?", I hear you ask. "Why's there all this stuff and facts and figures instead of quality rubbing material in some issues of MRJ? What's it good for?". Well, if you haven't figured that out, then you'll
probably be safer just skipping to the next page, as I said. If you're ready for some talk about why things are continuing to be fucked up in this country, then keep reading.
Lately there's been some hype about how things have really been improving in Romania. And I'm not talking about rising crime rates. Everyone seems to have gotten into this rosy spring mood, where milk and honey aren't yet flowing on the streets, but this
could happen anytime. There's talk about improved macroeconomic indicators on TV, articles on country ratings upgrades in the papers and optimistic declarations from politicians. What's it all about?
To be perfectly honest there have been improvements. Unfortunately these are mostly visible on the monetary front (this is good, but it's not enough). First there's been a steady decrease in inflation in the past year and so, and this is very important.
The monthly rate recorded in March was just 0,4% - an all-time low since December 1989. Decreasing inflation has been one of the most important targets of all post-december governments; none succeeded so far, but at present there is hope.
Decreased inflation triggers other positive changes in the economy. First we should all be thrilled by decreasing bank interest rates (for deposits and for credits) and decreasing interests on government bonds. High interest rates look sexy, but don't put money in the pocket.
We should also be grateful for decreasing rates of national currency depreciation and some cooling in price increases. These are long awaited measures that have been implemented in other Eastern-European countries years ago and are just starting to take place in Romania.
Better late than never.
There's also some good news on the economic front. No stunning accomplishments, but we do get occasional large-scale privatizations finally carried out (Sidex being the most notable one). Just so that you don't give me the "We won't sell our country" bullshit, keep in mind that
inefficient state-owned factories are financed through taxes collected from me and you, so privatizations are more than welcome. And then there's the added value if the private shareholder can actually provide that. What else? Some increase in exports due to reduced income tax for exporters;
some adjustments and improvements of legislation; some tightening financial discipline; things like that.
|
Then there's some improvement in our image abroad. And the talks about finally being admitted into NATO (we'll see about that). And that's important since it brings more institutional (WB, IMF, EBRD, EU) and private funds and investments.
So things are starting to get well. Or are they?
Unfortunately, to every good side there's a bad one; to every advantage there's a drawback. Inflation and interest rates are lower, but that's not enough for a struggling economy to recover. Furthermore, there's the little known fact #435: the method of calculating inflation rates has changed recently.
Who knows how relevant official inflation rates are any more? Who knows if anyone tampers with facts in order to obtain lower inflation rates?
Everybody is all hyped about the positive trend of the economy, but take a moment to look at some low-profile indicators, such as the average monthly wage. With a value of 107 USD (for February 2002), we're still in the fourth world(tm) league of countries. Privatization? We're still paying high bills for
state-owned inefficiency. What's more interesting, we're even paying for inefficiency in the private sector - delayed tax payments, VAT deductions and so forth.
What else? We still have an inefficient economy, we still have widespread debt, low profitability, absurdly high taxes, incoherent legal framework, extremely high levels of corruption, poverty, crime, and so on.
Next time you see your favourite politican on TV talking about progress, just think about your monthly wages; about how much of it you have to spend on food; about how much of it is left to spend on vacations and leisure. That's progress for us. These are our accomplishments.
So there are good things and there are bad things. The bottom line? Yes there is a sense of general stability. Yes there are expectations for a better future. There's a low inflation rate and we might even be admitted into NATO. These are all good and nice, really.
But the state of mint rubbing is still unchanged.
Just one or two colourful flowers do not mean that spring has already come. I hope there was better news.
Don't be fooled, everything is still fucked up. Everything still sucks, no matter what our beloved leaders (God bless 'em!) might say on national television. And, yes, we have them to thank for this mess. So this was our warning. We'll let you know when we're out of the woods. Or when the fat lady finally sings.
Until then, just return to your daily rubbing. Or to work, if you actually work. Take care. Wfoster
|
